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Soybean meal market is gaining momentum
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Soybean meal market is gaining momentum

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-04-24 17:21
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(Summary description)Since last year, my country's agricultural product market has been "hot" due to excess liquidity in the financial market and adverse weather factors. The prices of feed products such as soybean meal have been rising. China’s January CPI data was announced a few days ago, which rose 4.9% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations and also below the 5% inflation warning level. In addition, China just raised the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio last week, so the author believes Recently, the government will not issue major control policies, and the policy will enter an observation period.    The next step of the market’s attention will be shifted to the stocking of stocks in the spring breeding industry in my country and the investigation of soybean planting intentions.

Soybean meal market is gaining momentum

(Summary description)Since last year, my country's agricultural product market has been "hot" due to excess liquidity in the financial market and adverse weather factors. The prices of feed products such as soybean meal have been rising. China’s January CPI data was announced a few days ago, which rose 4.9% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations and also below the 5% inflation warning level. In addition, China just raised the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio last week, so the author believes Recently, the government will not issue major control policies, and the policy will enter an observation period.    The next step of the market’s attention will be shifted to the stocking of stocks in the spring breeding industry in my country and the investigation of soybean planting intentions.

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-04-24 17:21
  • Views:
Information

Since last year, my country's agricultural product market has been "hot" due to excess liquidity in the financial market and adverse weather factors. The prices of feed products such as soybean meal have been rising. China’s January CPI data was announced a few days ago, which rose 4.9% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations and also below the 5% inflation warning level. In addition, China just raised the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio last week, so the author believes Recently, the government will not issue major control policies, and the policy will enter an observation period.

The next step of the market's attention will be shifted to the stocking of stocks in the spring breeding industry in China and the investigation of soybean planting intentions. Therefore, there are four themes of hype in the soybean meal market in the future: First, the current pig-to-food ratio has increased from 6.51:1 in the previous period to 6.69: 1. Breeding income in some areas in China has reached 300-400 yuan/ton. At the same time, the early winter epidemic has basically eased, and the enthusiasm of the breeding industry has been greatly improved. Therefore, the soybean meal stocking market may come early; second, the southern hemisphere soybean is about to enter During the harvest period, soybean harvesting process, road and port pressures, and workers’ strikes in Argentina and Brazil will affect oil output. The possible global supply tensions will push up soybean prices; third, high international soybean prices and rising ocean freight prices have led to China's soybeans and substitutes Import costs are rising; fourth, the northern hemisphere is about to enter the spring planting period, and the market generally expects that the soybean planting area will decrease. Therefore, in general, the subject of future market speculation is rich, and the rising market is still expected.

However, there are still potential unfavorable factors in the current market, and investors should maintain rationality when operating. On the first day after the long Chinese New Year holiday last week, the central bank raised interest rates and reserve requirements for RMB deposits and loans. This is also the third consecutive interest rate hike by the central bank since October 20 last year. Every time the central bank raises interest rates, it has a set target, and it will be completed several times within a certain period of time. According to bank sources, this year's expected rate hike target is a one-year deposit rate of 3.5%-4%, which also indicates that there will be more than two rate hikes in the later period. The central bank's increase in deposit and loan interest rates is the government's main means of controlling market capital supply and inflation. This shows the government's determination to control inflation. Therefore, if the price of live pigs and other foods rises due to the increase in feed prices in the later period, and the bottom line of the government is reached, more unfavorable policies will be introduced to regulate prices.

In addition to the relevant regulation and control carried out by developing countries represented by my country, the fiscal deficit problem of developed countries represented by Europe and Japan, as well as the slowdown or even decline of economic growth, also threaten the upward trend of feed such as soybean meal. In order to reduce fiscal deficits, European countries have cut government expenditures on a large scale, reducing Europe's purchasing power in the global market. European meat consumption is expected to decrease, and global market demand for feed is expected to decrease. In addition, the slowdown in economic growth in countries such as Japan also affects meat demand expectations. Therefore, in the future, both developing and developed countries will have their own potential disadvantages. Therefore, investors should remain rational when investing and do not blindly chase high.

In summary, in the vacuum period after the announcement of the CPI, the market will mainly adjust the market. As the market’s attention shifts in the later period, various bullish factors begin to ferment, prices will continue to rise and there is a possibility of new highs. . Therefore, the author recommends to focus on short-term operations recently, and the mid-line waits for a good buying opportunity after the price callback. The first support level below is 3420 yuan/ton, and the second support level is 3380 yuan/ton.

For companies, due to potential unfavorable factors and the current policy is in a vacuum period, the price of soybean meal and other feed will be adjusted mainly. Therefore, the author recommends that the current price of soybean meal in the northeast region ranges from 140 to 420 yuan/ton. Enterprises, breeding enterprises and feed processing enterprises should actively seek to maintain the value of the inventory and avoid the risk of inventory depreciation when there are feed stocks such as soybean meal. If there is no inventory, the raw materials should be purchased in a short-period or zero inventory mode. Large-scale hoarding is not recommended.

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Time of issue:2020-07-22 00:00:00
Sanjia Feed
Sichuan Mianzhu Sanjia Feed Co., Ltd.

Address: Xiadonglin Village, Xinshi Town, Mianzhu City, Sichuan Province

Office: 0838-6504428

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Time of issue:2020-07-22 00:00:00

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